The best analogy of the economic and social forces at play right now with the energy sector mirror similar forces that were present in 1980 with the the IT and telecom sector best described as the hi-tech field. When the IBM PC challenged the Apple II were unveiled to the market labor costs were pressuring businesses and society with stagnant productivity and large inefficient systems throughout. At that time the computer technology was big, limited and most of all costly. Telecom was just beginning to unbundle itself from the throws of long term monopoly that primarily served the interests of those business owners.
Fast-forward ten years and the hi-tech revolution was in full swing where software and networking were rapidly changing the world and business/labor structures with automation and productivity gains as never seen before. By 1995 the famed Alan Greenspan recognized the power of computer automation by pointing that it was providing ever increasing productivity gains for both big and small business. And just sixteen years after IBM used a Charlie Chaplin character to introduce the IBM PC on the Super Bowl the world was in the midst of the dot.com balloon fundamentally changing the way good and services would be marketed and sold.
Over the next twenty years we will experience a similar revolution in business and society with Cleantech and the New Energies sector. Fossil fuel costs are on an unabated run escalating in cost and demand as both the global economy continues to bloom while production is stagnant and environmental concerns and costs continue to rise. It is a dangerous spiral. We know that Global Warming is real but do not know the eventual long term effects. Oil production is almost set at 86 billion barrels a day while worldwide demand is hovering around 84 billion barrels a day. The United States, China and India continue to increase their demands. Soon demand will eclipse supply and consequently the Federal Government's strategic push to rapidly develop E-85 fuels from ethanol. But that is only a stop gap effort. Like the escalating labor costs of the 1970's and early '80's business found that investing in capital technology to replace direct labor costs was the competitive pathway to survival and success. This even though business spent large expenditures in hardware, software, training and support services, even 3rd party consulting services. In turn we will see the same investment by companies and individuals into renewable and alternative energy to replace the high direct costs of fossil fuel energy over the next 20 years.
What does all this foretell for those seeking new careers? Opportunity is the only word that comes to my mind having worked through the last era of change. Initially the growing and emerging new companies will seek managers who will have experiences outside the field until the marketplace begins to catch up with experienced and educated professionals. The other opportunity is to be directly engaged with companies based on rapid growth and new marketplaces. Each energy platform (alternative or renewable) will mean an entire sub sector of supporting businesses. There will also be opportunities with convergent technologies in and out of the new energies sector.
As it stands now many emerging new energies firms are generally at three different stage of develop; post IPO yet still small or mid-sized cap except for two technology conglomerates, GE and Siemens, pre-IPO small-cap or venture based. In most cases the management teams are still relatively flat and focused on technology and business develop. Private equity and venture capitalists have been making placements in ever increasing investment levels each quarter since 2004 where in 2006 it appears that almost $2B was invested in the market. Early analysis state that the investment community invested over $900M in the 1st quarter of 2007. North American and European venture investment in the Cleantech category totalled $903m in the first quarter of this year, representing a 16.5 per cent increase over the $775m invested in Q4 2006 and a 42 per cent increase over the $634 million invested in Q1 2006, (according to Cleantech Venture Network researchers.)
Each week I intend to update the reader with pertinent news and anecdotal information gained from conversations with executives and investors engaged in this exciting field.---Robert
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