Friday, May 4, 2007

Wall Street: This is the year of the thin film PV stock

Overall the message is clear investment in capital equipment that replaces direct fuel costs is nothing but seeking long term competitive advantages in productivity and costs.

The market seems to constantly recognize a trend ahead of the media but once the newspapers start to talk about it it is too late to be in on the bigger fiscal gains. Nowhere in the renewable energy is it more recognizable than in the solar related stocks.

  • Amorphous Silicon has (64%) of the thin film market as of 2005
  • Cadmium Telluride had 26% share of the market and is ramping up.
  • Copper Indium Gallium Selenide has 10% share of the thin film market, with more potential,

In 2005 all solar stocks outperformed the average NASDAQ stock by an amazingly wide margin ; 100 fold greater. 2006, was the beginning of a significant ramp up in solar financings.

  • Solar IPO's
  • Solar R&D allowing the industry to continue and even expand its current robust growth.
  • 2006 was "The Year of the Solar IPO" continuing in 2007 and beyond.

All indications is that 2007 may mark a very significant chapter in the history of the renewable energy industry -- the beginning of the transition from the current dominant technology, crystalline silicon, to the "next generation" photovoltaic (PV) technology -- thin film technologies.

  • Thin film panels have the potential to produce power significantly cheaper than today's standard silicon technology.
  • Made in the form of a monolithic piece of glass, upon which various thin films are then deposited.
  • Firms are also working on depositing various thin film materials on flexible substrates, (i.e., stainless steel or plastic).Three types of thin film technologies: Amorphous Silicon (a-Si); Cadmium Telluride (CdTe); Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS).
  • Advantages of thin film technologies over conventional crystalline silicon includes:
  • Lower cost of production than conventional silicon processes.
  • Lower manufacturing facility cost per watt
  • Uses far less material, than the amount used in standard silicon cells.
  • Lower energy payback
  • Produces more useable power per rated watt.
  • Superior performance in hot and overcast climates.
  • Ability to be attractively integrated into buildings
  • Produces the lowest cost power

Public companies that have made numerous comments in their annual reports concerning their work in thin film and consider it to be a key part of their future expansion strategy.

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