I want to apologize, I have not afforded the time to update this blog as I wanted. So this month I am going to insure that two submissions are made as some of you have requested---ENOUGH SAID, thank you.
Peak Oil---as T.Boon Pickens said this winter the world is
producing 86B barrels a day and demanding 84B barrels. Now the industry analysts are coming to
admit this and that after 2009 we will be producing less---meaning big price changes for fossil fuel energy. Think we can grow enough corn?Investment trends--are that renewable is booming, to the tune of at least $100B in 2006 and more so in 2007. Another analyst puts it this way an all renewable electric grid would save the global economy $180B and cut greenhouse emissions
in half.Kyoto Protocol implications--are that in the U.S. the voluntary market is rapidly expanding reaching close to $100M. Not included is the advent of the personal or retail market now being led by former Expedia CEO. Also the Royal Bank of Scotland is being made an example with their business practice and extended carbon footprint.The carbon neutral movement--- the Italians are going business casual to lower carbon emissions, while Google seeks to be neutral by next year and
Yahoo is not far behind. All told over 75% of major companies are seeking to lower their carbon footprint.The new age of cars---is dawning upon us as GM has moved engineers, promise to have fuel cell cars at the showroom by 2012, Tesla is about to begin delivery of their celebrated all electric performance vehicle, Toyota is unveiling their hybrid rechargeable and Denmark launches production of the first all hydrogen car.
Solar development---is that executives see nanotechnology lowering the price of solar KWhr by half and below $1.00 in next few years, policy makers see solar breaking up the grid’s bottleneck out east and Macy’s is joining Wal-Mart, Kohls, and Target in putting solar on their roofs in California.
The Mighty Wind blows---where Dutch turbine maker Vestas is building a US plant in CO and Gamsea has agreed to terms with the unions.
Peak Oil
“The Oil Drum” a well known industry newsletter updated its Oil Forecasts (including Saudi Arabia) on July 22nd: World total liquid production remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off its plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing. Long term production is seen decreasing by 1% per year after 2009 to 2012 and a 4% decline after 2012.
The Int’l Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report on July 9th that even though it does not acknowledge “Peak Oil”, it predicts a supply crunch in the 2010-12 time frame. Low OPEC spare capacity and slow non-OPEC production growth are of significant concern.
(Editors Note:) If you think we can grow ourselves out of it with corn or soybeans think again; Stanford Ovshinsky renowned scientist and founder of Energy Conversion Devices Inc. stated July 28th that “ If America dedicated the nation's entire production of corn and soybeans to biofuels, he said, it would meet just 12 percent of the demand for gasoline and 6 percent of the demand for diesel.”
Investment News and Trends
Jason Hamlin of the well known “Gold Stock Bull” (an investment strategist in energy, gold and bull markets
Investors Flock to Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies; Transactions Leap to Record $100 Billion in 2006, Says UNEP Study; Renewables Shed Fringe Image; American, European Markets Dominate But 9% of Global Investments are in China, 21% in Developing Countries. The report says investment capital flowing into renewable energy climbed from $80 billion in 2005 to a record $100 billion in 2006. As well, the renewable energy sector's growth "although still volatile ... is showing no sign of abating." The report offers a host of reasons behind and insights into the world's newest gold rush, which saw investors pour $71 billion into companies and new sector opportunities in 2006, a 43% jump from 2005 (and up 158% over the last two years. The trend continues in 2007 with experts predicting investments of $85 billion this year). In addition to the $71 billion, about $30 billion entered the sector in 2006 via mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts and asset refinancing. This buy-out activity, rewarding the sector's pioneers, implies deeper, more liquid markets and is helping the sector shed its niche image, according to the report. While renewable sources today produce about 2% of the world's energy, they now account for about 18% of world investment in power generation, with wind generation at the investment forefront. Solar and bio-fuel energy technologies grew even more quickly than wind, but from a smaller base. Read the full report:
Investing in renewable electricity worldwide instead of burning fossil fuels could save US$180 billion annually and cut emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in half by 2030, according to a joint report by Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council, released today.In the first global analysis of its kind, the report argues for a shift in global investments towards renewable energy - solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy - within the next 23 years, and away from "dangerous" coal and nuclear power. "As Live Earth mobilizes billions of people to take urgent action against the climate threat, our report shows not only that the world’s electricity needs can be met by renewable energy, but that by doing so, we will literally save trillions of dollars; a massive US$180 billion a year, forever," said Sven Teske of Greenpeace International.
Kyoto Protocol, Carbon Awareness and Implications and Development
The voluntary carbon market has grown by 200% in 2006, with 2007 already proving to be a blow-out in terms of volume, market entrants, and development of transparent standards, according to State and Trends of Voluntary Carbon Market (State and Trends of the Voluntary Carbon Market. The trade of voluntary greenhouses gas emission credits grew to 23.7M metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2006 worth $91M making the volume weighted value of $4.1 per ton of CO2. (price ranged from $0.45 to $45.00 a ton.(Note: In that range the highest prices were paid for projects related to “strong qualities and verifiability attributes such as landfill and coal mine methane as long as publicly visible forestry products and long term sustainable development projects such as energy conservation or off-grid renewable energy.
Editors Note: The Volunteer Carbon Market is also going retail as in a related development Erik Blachford, the former CEO of Expedia.com, has joined TerraPass (http://www.terrapass.com) as its new Chairman and CEO. Blachford says he will spend his first few months on the job expanding the Terra Pass team and learning the ins and outs of the business. Blachford left Expedia several years and is also on Boards of other investments. TerraPass is the brainchild of Dr. Karl Ulrich at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with 41 of his students, Karl launched TerraPass in October, 2004 as a way to help everyday people reduce the climate impact of their driving. Within its first year, TerraPass registered over 2,400 members, reduced 36 million pounds of CO2.
Royal Bank stands up for size of its carbon footprint
Royal Bank of Scotland's chairman, Sir Tom McKillop, claimed this week that an attempt by environmental activists to hold it responsible for the carbon emissions of oil and gas projects which it finances was "deeply, deeply flawed". London-based Platform, which describes itself as a campaigner "for social and ecological justice", claimed in a recent report backed by Friends of the Earth Scotland that Royal was responsible for carbon emissions greater than those of all of Scotland. McKillop said the report implied “banks should be responsible for the carbon footprints of everyone they lend to.” He added: “That would mean banks would be responsible pretty much for the carbon emissions of the world. It is just completely flawed,” he claimed, saying that the argument could be extended to take in the impact of households’ carbon emissions if Royal provided a mortgage, or the environmental impact of cars if it had provided a car loan.
Platform claims in its report “The Oil & Gas Bank”: The Royal Bank of Scotland is covering up involvement in carbon emissions greater than those of the whole country of Scotland. PLATFORM's reveals the extent to which RBS-NatWest is providing the financial fuel driving climate change. (Download the report ) RBS is more "oil" than "royal", as the bank financing oil & gas extraction. Using customers’ cashas financial fuel to drive oil rig and pipeline construction, RBS is accelerating climate chaosand fossil fuel addiction. With global assets of over $1120bn, including NatWest, RBS is determining our energy future.Calling itself "the oil & gas bank", RBS is helping force open the carbon frontier, financing controversial projects in Nigeria, the Caucasus and Wales. Its involvement in Angolan and Nigerian oil fields encourages corruption and conflict, while gas projects from the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Mexico threaten environmental destruction. Claims to corporate responsibility are full of greenwash. Students are a particularly important constituency for RBS - university is when many people open accounts that they keep for life. Students across the country are pressuring RBS to get out of oil & gas and into solar and wind instead.
Italians fight global warming by shedding their ties
ROME: Last week, when employees at Eni, Italy's largest power company, turned on their computers, a survey popped up on the screen: Would they be willing to relinquish suits and ties for the summer so that Eni could turn down its central air conditioning, saving money and reducing carbon emissions? Ninety percent said yes. So this week, corporate offices in Rome and Milan began an experiment in permitting "lighter and cooler" office attire as the height of summer approaches. In this formal, fashion-conscious country, where suits are the uniform of every office, men at Eni this week turned up in polo shirts, women in T-shirts and skirts.
By allowing the building temperature to creep up just 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), the company estimates it will save 217,000 kilowatts per hour this summer, a reduction of 126 tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere over the season, or the amount of carbon emissions that would be saved if 140 employees came to work by public transportation rather than private car for a year. The fact is that air conditioning, in homes and in offices, is a great gobbler of energy and producer of emissions, using about 5 percent of all the electricity produced in the United States, according to the Department of Energy. U.S. homes release 100 million tons of carbon dioxide a year, about two tons per residence. Now imagine what happens as the climate heats up. Last year, air conditioning sales boomed in Britain and across Northern Europe during a July heat wave, according to the Association for the Conservation of Energy. In Britain, the association estimates that emissions from domestic air-conditioners will hit 4.9 million tons a year by 2020, making it impossible for Britain to meet its target under the Kyoto Protocol.
Google says that it plans to be carbon neutral by 2008, Reuters:
To reach the goal, Google is investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy like solar, and will purchase carbon offsets. Google says it took into account emissions from purchased electricity, employee commuting, business travel, construction, and server manufacturing. In a partnership with the Environmental Resources Trust , the company said it independently verified this assessment.
In April, Yahoo announced its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2008.
Google says it plans to create an additional 50 MWs of renewable energy generating capacity by 2012 –
About 75 percent of companies are actively measuring their “carbon footprint” – the range of carbon emissions from their operations, both direct and indirect, according to a report released today from The Conference Board. The report, based on a survey of 92 companies from various industries, looks at how companies are integrating greenhouse gas management into their overall business strategy. More than 95 percent report that they see the prospect of a carbon-concerned future as creating both business risk and opportunity. One-half indicate they have a program in place to “actively reduce or offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.” An additional 33 percent are developing such programs, while 15 percent have no plans to do so. Nearly all programs include reductions in energy use, while most (83 percent) are simultaneously focused on reducing GHGs. One-third are focused primarily on direct emissions – those resulting from fuel consumption or from materials used in their processes – while two-thirds include both direct and indirect emissions (primarily purchased electricity). Fewer than 20 percent have attempted to measure their competitors’ carbon footprints, which may reflect the complexity and difficulty in doing so or indicate that the issue is not perceived as a major competitive challenge at this time.
Transportation
GM has moved 500 fuel cell engineers from advanced development laboratories to core engineering organization with the commitment to develop electrically-propelled vehicles utilizing diverse energy sources. (GM Group VP of Global Powertrain Tom Stephens-6/15/2007. 400 engineers were transferred to the Powertrain Group while another 100 were transferred to the Global Product Development organization where they will start integrating fuel cells to future vehicles—A month earlier GM executive stated the carmaker could have vehicles powered by fuel cells in showrooms by 2012, a target more aggressive than that of most other automakers. "I don't know how many of them we'll make at the time, but we should have them in showrooms by early next decade, around 2011 or 2012," Larry Burns, GM vice president of research and development and planning, told reporters yesterday. "Post-2012, the goal is to ramp up production to about a million vehicles a year, worldwide."
Tesla Motors has received over 560 reservations out of a planned goal of 800 for the 2008 model.The Tesla Roadster is a stylish, high-performance, 100% electric sports car, that can accelerate to 60 mph in about 4 seconds and has a range of more than 200 miles on a single charge. They expect to start shipping Roadsters to customers this Fall.
Hydrogen powered car set for production The first prototype of the Hywet car will roll out of the garage in August, powered by fuel cells running on hydrogen. Hydrogen-powered cars could provide a crucial component in energy plans for the future, because their only waste product is water vapor, and hydrogen fuel is essentially unlimited. Although the car’s technology is still being fine-tuned, Hywet’s developers expect it will soon provide an affordable, green alternative to internal combustion engines, which are responsible for a major portion of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. The project is the result of a co-operative effort between private companies Heat and Serenergy and Aalborg University, Mariagerfjord Municipality and the Centre for Material and Energy Technology (Cemtec), based in northern Jutland. Thanks to an electric motor, the two-passenger Hywet can reach a speed of 80 km and accelerate surprisingly briskly. Current prices for hydrogen mean the Hywet can be fuelled up for DKK 100 (€13.50), making it competitive with conventional petrol and diesel-powered cars.
The car does have some drawbacks. The technology is still costly and an infrastructure for supplying the hydrogen still needs to be developed.
Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) announced that it has developed a plug-in hybrid vehicle, the Toyota Plug-in HV, and is the first manufacturer to have such a vehicle certified for use on public roads in Japan.The PHEV is a 5 passenger vehicle with a cruising range of 8 miles (13 km) in the all electric mode with a top speed of 60 mph (100 km/hr). Increased battery capacity gives it a longer electric-motor onlycruising range and a battery-charging device, distinguishes it from previous hybrids and allows users to replenish the batteries using household electricity. These features enable the vehicle to run more often in gasoline-free, electric-only mode, such as on short trips in city driving. The resulting fuel efficiency improvements mean lower CO2 emissions and less fossil fuel consumption and, therefore, less pollution. Also, charging the battery with less-expensive nighttime electricity lowers total running costs, providing an economic benefit to owners.
Solar Energy
Solar Power Nanotechnology May Cut Cost In Half, Executives Say
Industry representatives involved in the development of nanotechnology-based solar power panels have said that these panels can potentially cost less than US$1 per kilowatt-hour or half as much as conventional photovoltaic cells. The article says that nanotechnology-based solar cells can potentially convert up to 30 percent of the sun's rays into electricity, compared to the 14 percent conversion efficiency of conventional photovoltaic cells. Alf Bjorseth of Norwegian solar company Scatec AS said: "This technology has the potential to make solar bigger than oil and gas. First we had photovoltaics, then thin-film, and now nanotech. It's the third wave of solar technology that will make it cost less than grid power." The article says that U.S. company Nanosolar is planning to open a factory for nanotech-based thin-film solar panels in 2010 that will produce enough solar cells annually to generate 430 megawatts of power. The article can be viewed online at the link below.
Solar power can ease transmission bottleneck
"Power corridor proposal generates criticism," about opposition to the proposed transmission lines to run between central/upstate and downstate New York, highlights the lack of a coherent federal energy policy. It also points out the need for the states, including New York, to step into this policy vacuum to address the transmission grid bottleneck described in the article.
Toward that end, our organization continues to push for more deployment of solar technology in New York to relieve the stress on the electric grid. Solar is particularly good at this during hot, sunny weather, when the grid is most stressed. Research has shown that strategically installed commercial solar systems along the grid would reduce loads at these critical times and lessen the chance of a major blackout, as happened in August 2003.
Solar systems are proven, reliable (20 years and longer) and available right now for installation on residences and commercial or industrial applications. And solar systems have become more affordable with New York and federal incentives in place.
To make this a reality, we are also pushing for New York to adopt a 10-year incentive program with the goal of installing 2,000 megawatts of solar on residential, not-for-profit and commercial buildings. This would put New York in line with California's and New Jersey's aggressive approach and help to lure solar cell and silicon manufacturers to set up business in the state, particularly in upstate where good paying, high-tech jobs are needed.
Macy's to Incorporate Solar Power in California Locations
The San Francisco division of Macy’s said on Wednesday that it would install rooftop solar power panels and upgrade energy systems in 26 of its 114 stores in the Golden State. The locations are split evenly between northern and Southern California, and were chosen for their potential to maximize conservation.
The Mighty Wind
Wind Turbine Plants Breaking Ground in US
Vestas debut called 'wind-win'
$60 million plant will take eight months to build. The groundbreaking ceremony for a $60 million wind turbine blade manufacturing plant was referred to Thursday as both a "win-win" and a "wind-win" situation" for Windsor, the region and the state. But whatever label numerous dignitaries put on it, the new 200,000-square-foot Vestas Blades facility which will be located in the Great Western Industrial Park on the east side of Windsor, is widely being recognized as a key component that could place Colorado at the forefront of the renewable energy industry.
Wind Turbine Manufacturer Gamesa Agrees to its First U.S. Union Contract
Gamesa, a Spanish wind turbine manufacturer, has hammered out its first-ever U.S. union contract with the United Steelworkers (USW). Workers at two Gamesa facilities in Pennsylvania voted to approve their first contract with 80 percent in favor of it. The agreement lays the foundation for a stronger partnership between one of the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturers – and the only one that makes its blades, nacelles, and towers all in the U.S. – and the 850,000 member union.
The three-year contract raises worker salaries by more than 10 percent, as well as provides for bonuses and benefits for roughly 600 employees. Michael Peck, a Gamesa spokesman, called the contract “a world-class agreement." Tom Conway, USW international vice president
Final Editors Note: Implications of these and other developments too numerous to post is that the disruptive economics and technologies are now in play regarding energy and eventually technologies. The price of energy based on the price of a barrel of oil is stable now between $60.00 and $75.00 but if peak oil predictions are correct that price will creep towards $100.00 a barrel as global demand increases. (US demand is increasing currently at 22% of world demand up from 15% in 1991, along with the ever increasing demands of China and India.) The inevitable will come into reality now slated for 2010 when prices are expected to rise a minimum of triple today's price. This coupled with the social and political demands of Kyoto Protocol and carbon neutral forces will be the fuel for the new booming market of renewables/alternatives and cleantech.
For executives and professionals seeking to transition into this sector as part of their career goals one must understand that in some ways this sector does not have a resident population to satisfy demand but there are sectors and industries that naturally provide a good foundation. Wind Energy outside the power generation area is connected to the aeronautics, gearing, capital infrastructure construction and materials technology arenas. The solar world is connected to the semi-conductor and composite materials arena. The fuel cell area is connected to electronic device, power supply, semi-conductor and industrial gases. I caution the world to step lightly in the area of ethanol be it fermitation or celluose as it appears to be a dead-end and lacking in a sustainable marketplace. The ramp up in this new market could be greater than the dotcom and the IT world combined.
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